Dallas exits the offseason with a bunch of new faces, including a collection of former Warriors. Do they have the right ingredients to be a winning team?
A wide array of ingredients go into the making of a great team. Just like every great cake is different – one may be chocolate, another red velvet, or have lemon icing – they have similar base ingredients. The same is true with every great team. Whatever the names on the jerseys, there are five components that go into making a group of players into a championship squad:
Talent. On-court fit. Continuity. Coaching. Personalities.
The amounts of each component are up for debate. Franchises such as the Houston Rockets emphasize talent over continuity or personalities. The Orlando Magic have ignored on-court fit as they have assembled talent and positive personalities. The San Antonio Spurs won five titles during Tim Duncan’s career because continuity and personality fits were more important than chasing talent.
For years, the Dallas Mavericks have been an example that stretched the boundaries. They have continually rotated the cast of characters around Dirk Nowitzki, a cast that has to learn how to play together afresh every season. Continuity de-emphasized?
But Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle have been together for years, and what happens in Dallas goes through both of those men. That has the feeling of continuity. And while the Mavericks have struck out on the best of talent, they annually add rotation pieces that perform well above expectations.
As far as on-court fit goes, the Mavericks seem to have put together something prescient in the midst of chaos. Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes come via the Golden State Warriors, and both fit well next to Dirk Nowitzki (although who doesn’t?). Barnes’ defensive versatility makes him a top candidate to play at the 4 on Dallas bench units, and Bogut’s passing is a dangerous weapon with Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews spotting up around. Teams have learned at their peril how well Bogut can pass when surrounded by shooters.
Deron Williams re-signed with the Mavericks with his eyes on the 2017 prize, when the cap will rise yet again and Williams can re-enter the free agency market. His goal is to have a strong year and boost his value, but the former All-Star may not have enough left in the tank for such a season.
If he is going to have it anywhere, it’s playing with Nowitzki. Although Williams has lost a step (or three), running the pick-and-roll with Dirk means he’s going to have a free step towards the basket, as no big man is going to leave the future Hall-of-Fame forward. With Matthews and Barnes spotting up and Bogut lurking on the baseline for a lob, defenses will be stressed trying to keep everything in check. That’s the effect Dirk always has.
His effect becomes even more potent when he shifts to the center position. Barnes shines as a swing forward, able to guard power forwards and occasionally even centers. Even when he was being maligned for missing wide open shots for the Warriors, his work defending down low was crucial to Golden State’s versatility. Adding another shooter on the wing opens up this offense even more, and last season such lineups featuring Chandler Parsons as the small-ball 4 were able to score more than they gave up.
Even as the roster has flipped over season after season, Rick Carlisle and Dirk have remained standing at the helm. Some may express distaste at Carlisle’s hands-on approach (he calls nearly every single play the Mavericks run), but he certainly sees results, missing the playoffs only once despite injuries and subpar talent.
Another area that Dallas should be strong is in the personalities of the team. Interestingly, the Mavericks seem to have fallen backwards into a rotation of players committed to winning and not beholden to personal numbers or agendas. Guys like Bogut, Barnes, and Matthews all seem to accept their roles with class, and the bench Dallas has assembled is a collection of older veterans and up-and-coming young players without a history of chemistry issues.
But the big names the Mavericks chase do have egos and locker room issues, from Dwight Howard this season to guys such as DeAndre Jordan, Monta Ellis, and Rajon Rondo in the past. Mark Cuban and the organization seem to go after talent first, but perhaps the strong culture Carlisle and Nowitzki have put in place attracts a certain type of player.
For the Mavericks to move from good to great, they will need the different pieces to influence each other. The coaching of Carlisle is needed to unlock the talent of Barnes and Justin Anderson on the wing; the continuity of a system based around Dirk should improve the on-court fit with guys such as Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews.
In the end, however, the success of the final product is heavily dependent on context. A homemade cake with all of the right ingredients is delicious after dinner on a Saturday night, but may not hold up at a baking contest where every cake is made with the right ingredients.
That’s the stage set for Dallas this year. If Barnes can be 90 percent of the player Chandler Parsons was for Dallas last season and stay on the court all year, that’s an improvement. Bogut has more pedigree than Zaza Pachulia while bringing elite rim protection. If Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews can both return to recent form and young bench players such as Anderson and Seth Curry can take steps forward, this team has the ability to win more than 50 games.
But the reality is that every team in the West has a collection of strong talent, from the young developing players in Los Angeles and Minnesota to savvy veterans in San Antonio and Memphis. The Mavericks have aging or injury prone players that have to maximize their abilities to be relevant. The Warriors could minimize their abilities and still win 60 games. Such is the modern Western Conference.
Can everything go right and Dallas host a playoff series? Absolutely it could, especially when Dirk Nowitzki is involved. But he is 38 years old, and sometime his age has to catch up to him. It’s far more likely Dallas finds itself in a similar position as last year, fighting down the stretch to even qualify for the postseason.
No one is ready to count Dallas out, and they rebounded admirably from a slow start to free agency. But the clock continues to tick on Dirk’s career, and the Mavericks seem destined for a finish not on a level with what the future Hall-of-Famer deserves. While many of the faces are new, the outcome will probably be the same, a first-round exit leading to more roster turnover next season.
